We said last month that the real sentiment of the so-called summer slump was “See you in September” and industry news is starting to sing the same tune. At this point it’s still based on anecdotal evidence, but across media outlets the news is that normalcy has returned. We at ESPINAL | ADLER are embracing it with open arms.
According to the latest report by Miller Samuel, Manhattan deals were down 20 percent year-over-year for co-ops and 31 percent for condos, while new listings dropped 9 percent and 20 percent, respectively. In both Manhattan and Brooklyn, newly signed contracts have tapered off in parallel with the decline in new listings “which makes the market feel like it’s not as slow,” Jonathan Miller, author of the report, commented about how the data translates to market sentiment. At the end of the day, it all comes down to balancing supply with demand. And remember, what looks like a cliff-dive from last year is actually right in line with pre-pandemic trends.
As we closed out the third quarter of the year, the median sales price in Manhattan rose to the second highest on record for any third quarter, which attracted some new sellers to the market and accounted for the nominal increase in inventory available. Luxury listing inventory also expanded year over year but remained below pre-pandemic levels, bookending and highlighting what a statistical outlier the past two years have been. New development listings accounted for one-third of all luxury listings, which is consistent with the decade average.
Sales in Westchester County slowed annually for the third consecutive quarter, but still marked the third-highest total number of transactions on record. Median and average sales prices both reached new records and remained well-above pre-pandemic levels. In fact, all luxury price trend indicators in the county reached their respective second-highest peak. At the same time, listing inventory was the lowest level recorded in a third quarter and luxury inventory fell for the fourteenth consecutive quarter to its second-lowest recorded count.
Activity wise, Brooklyn struggled to rebound from the summer slump. According to Compass’ weekly report of homes asking $2 million or more, just 12 contracts were signed in the borough in the last week of the month. That’s only five above 2022’s lowest reported week. One- to three-family homes showed their popularity though, with newly signed contracts increasing six percent.
It’s not just buying and selling that’s cooling back to normal temperatures; NYC’s rental market also appears to be tapering off after a summer of historically high prices even as rising interest rates keep some would-be buyers in the rental market. The citywide median rent plateaued at $3,500 per month in September, down from $3,575 in August. The rental market typically peaks in late summer before picking up again in the spring, making this another sign of a return to familiar patterns.
Not everyone who left the City during the pandemic came flocking back. Moves from New York to Florida were among the top 100 most common relocations in 2021. Between March 2020 and February 2021 more than 19,000 Manhattan residents relocated to Florida, according to USPS change of address data pulled by The Real Deal. This comes as no surprise when you consider the number of corporations and businesses that recently opened offices in Miami (Including E|A!) With so much new business activity, Miami is now often referred to as the “Wall Street of the South.”
When it comes to housing in Miami, September’s top 44 sales averaged $4.2 million, $1 million more than August’s average of $3.2 million, but a bit shy of June’s average of $4.8 million. One outlier in that data includes Adrienne Arsht’s Coconut Grove estate, which sold for a record-breaking $107 million. It’s the first time a residential sale in Miami-Dade County surpassed the $100 million threshold.