2016 Predictions: Inventory

Inventory, or the general lack thereof, has monopolized the headlines for some time now.  “Historically low levels,” everyone has noted.  And indeed, this is true.  That said, we believe that these levels now define the new status quo in the city.  We see no material catalysts on the horizon that will dramatically change the existing picture.   Owner-occupied properties won’t hit the market in masse, are largely priced out of any potential upgrades.

Therefore, we believe the bulk of the inventory hitting the market will come from investor-owned units whose owners are seeing prices stabilize in the low-single-digits range.  Based on this price stabilization and the expectation of flat-ish returns for the near future, we believe investors will look to cash out given the favorable economic outlook in NYC.

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